Quick Take! EU Elections: It's getting hot in here!

So take off all your votes

The Netherlands will be the first European country to vote in the EU elections on Thursday, June 6. That makes us the Iowa of Europe!

Not really, but anyway, the “EU elections” are for the EU Parliament, the only body in all of the EU that is directly elected. Meaning that voting in these elections is the only opportunity for Europeans to participate in European agenda-setting. 

A shift to the right seems like the inevitable outcome of these elections. Six EU countries already have far-right parties in government—Italy, Finland, Slovakia, Hungary, Croatia, and the Czech Republic. The Netherlands is about to be the seventh, and polls suggest that France and Germany may be next. 

Economist

Politically, a rightward shift will mean rolling back climate initiatives, more pro-agricultural policies, restricted migration, increased defense spending, and less support for Ukraine. 

Practically, many “MEPs have been complaining for years that their right-wing radical colleagues never show up and avoid negotiations. Some also fear a paralysis of the European Parliament if the right-wing radical flank grows significantly.”

As the Economist predicts:

[T]he probable outcome of the election will be a period of political rudderlessness. At best, its 27 national leaders and the EU’s central institutions will spend months focused on internal machinations, such as who gets what job in Brussels. At worst, rows about the future direction of the EU could last past the end of the year—leaving a political vacuum there, even as a putative Trump administration prepares for office.

As tedious as all of this sounds, it’s also stupid, considering how long far-right parties have been hostile to the EU. Geert Wilders only abandoned his calls for “Nexit” two months ago. 

Now far-right leaders like Wilders, Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni, and French politician Marine Le Pen promise to “change the EU from within.” This was a big theme at CPAC, the Met Gala of the far-right, hosted in Hungary in April.  

Which reminds me of that classic line from “Hot in Herre” by Nelly. 

I’ve got a pole in the basement We’re gonna to leave the EU (What?) 

I’m just kidding

Unless you’re gon’ do it.

But seriously, the EU is a fundamentally liberal institution. In theory, it respects human rights, civil liberties, judicial autonomy, social welfare, and democracy (even though there is only one elected body. I’m being theoretical).

What’s gon’ happen when this liberal institution is dominated by ultra-conservatives? 

Of course, it’s too early to say. And the precise issue at the moment is whether or not the two divided factions of the EU far-right—the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and Identity and Democracy (ID)—will actually be able to come together and form a “supergroup” and actually do anything. 

And once they’re in office, they very well might change their tune. 

The Netherlands provides a good example of how this might work. Post-Brexit, Dutch influence in the EU grew dramatically, as the NRC reports:  

When the United Kingdom decided to leave the EU in 2016, the Netherlands lost an important ‘big brother’ and was forced to stand up for itself more. The Hague also turned that necessity into a virtue, by taking a new position as a kind of game-splitter between superpowers Germany and France...

Prime Minister Mark Rutte was crucial to the growing influence of the Netherlands. From an apparently disinterested Eurosceptic, he has developed in recent years into a welcome, authoritative senior at the European negotiating table. It meant that Rutte could join the leaders of major countries in the European pecking order. 

There’s nothing like the exposure to a little power in Brussels to make politicians— especially far-right politicians who’ve been operating on the political fringes for decades—look at the institution which granted them that power a bit more favorably.

They might even start looking a bit like liberals.