Quick Take: Omtzigt walks, cabinet discussions fail
You'd think it was about the rule of law, but no
Yesterday Pieter Omtzigt, leader of the center-right NSC party, walked away from cabinet formation talks. By doing so he closed off the possibility of a majority cabinet led by the far-right PVV head Geert Wilders.
Huge news, but not a big surprise. Reporting last week already suggested that major ideological differences between the parties would make cabinet formation impossible. And the talks were probably doomed from the start, given how far apart they all were on so many issues, like immigration, health care, Ukraine support, EU membership, and social security. You know, basically everything.
Omzigt walked, or at least he said he walked, because of the “state of public finances.” In a letter to his party members he wrote:
The NSC notes that as of today we have different financial expectations [than the other parties] for the coming years. Under no circumstances does NSC want to make promises to the Dutch people which it knows in advance are empty promises that cannot be kept during the coming cabinet period. You don’t build social security with castles in the air.
In other words: he thinks the other parties—particularly the farmer party (BBB) and Wilders’ PVV—have proposed irresponsible, unaffordable plans.
The Volkskrant reports:
It was already clear that government finances threatened to become the biggest stumbling block in the talks. PVV and BBB in particular have made big and expensive promises in their election manifestos. VVD and NSC find this difficult to reconcile with their own desire to pursue a sound budget policy and not to allow government deficits to rise too high.
You would be forgiven for having assumed that the cabinet formation talks failed over disagreements over the rule of law—the buzzword(phrase) from earlier in the negotiation process, and the campaign. Over the years Wilders has proposed a variety of laws which violate fundamental democratic principles, like the freedom of religion and equal treatment under the law. And also over the years, Omtzigt has developed a reputation as perhaps the most constitutional- and rule-of-law focused politician in all of parliament.
And now the problem is... the “state of public finances?” It seems off. Very off. Indeed, the other parties in the formation talks all expressed shock and surprise that Omtzigt suddenly dropped out yesterday. It seems that for him, the delayed disclosure of some financial information was the last straw in negotiation process plagued by mistrust, gossip, and party leaders bitching at each other on X.
But still. This is what we’re walking away over? Not like, the authoritarian stuff?
You could argue that Omtzigt shouldn’t have engaged in talks with the PVV in the first place. Center-right engagement with the far-right legitimizes it, and it’s likely that VVD party leader Dilan Yesilgöz got us into this position by opening the door to collaboration with the PVV last fall. Her endorsement helped make him tolerable.
However, I think that in the Dutch context, it’s a good thing that the right negotiated this long. There’s a DNA-level impulse to politically collaborate here, and had either of the center-right parties (the NSC or VVD) simply not come to the table, it might have been as off-putting for the right-leaning Dutch electorate as any of Wilders’ proposals are to the left.
So what’s next?
Really, nobody knows, not even insiders, and definitely not me. Dutch cabinet formations are legendarily complicated. Anything could still happen.
Omtzigt says he “remains open to a minority cabinet, or to an extra-parliamentary cabinet with broad support in the House.” I do wonder if there will be fallout for the NSC for leaving the talks over the budgetary hurt feelings, when so much else is at stake.
And of course, the left-wing parties now want to come to the table. The talks aren’t over yet.
The big question remains: can Wilders still become prime minister? Although the PVV remains popular—see the poll numbers above—it seems technically possible but increasingly unlikely.
I will keep you posted on what happens next. Just as soon as something that makes sense happens. So, maybe never!
*all typos in this post are on purpose
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