What Trump's return means for the Netherlands
Nothing good!
Over the years I’ve heard many Dutch people argue, half-joking, that they deserve a vote in American presidential elections, given how consequential American politics are to their lives. If we had had a vote, last week’s election would’ve turned out quite differently: only eleven percent of Dutch people would have voted for Trump. Weirdly, even most members of the far-right Dutch PVV party would have picked Kamala Harris (48%) over Trump (26%).
The Dutch are pessimistic about the Trump-led future. A poll found that half expect a negative influence on Dutch foreign policy, and two-thirds also fear the consequences for environment, climate, and world peace.
So how might Donald Trump, this president we didn’t get to choose, shape the next four years in the Netherlands?
There are two main areas of immediate concern: the economy and defense. The Dutch economy, and indeed economies all around Europe, will be hit hard if Trump implements high tariffs on foreign exports, as he promised during his campaign. The future of the NATO military alliance is now in question, and whatever happens there, the Netherlands will ramp up defense spending at the cost of social services.
Dutch industry and the European economy in big trouble
As his first act in hard-core isolationism, Trump has proposed to hike tariffs on the import of all foreign products to the United States to between ten and twenty percent. His theory is that this would create American jobs by, for example, forcing foreign companies to build American factories in order to be able to afford access the US market.
In reality, if this happened other countries would raise tariffs on American exports in retaliation, a global trade war would ensue, and every economy would be worse off.
This would very bad news for Dutch industries in particular, as the Volkskrant reported:
The Dutch economy is vulnerable to American import duties, because the United States, corrected for re-exports, is the fourth largest export market for Dutch goods after Germany, Belgium and the United Kingdom, notes Rabobank economist Hugo Erken. For example, more than half of Dutch exports of artworks are destined for the American market, and almost a quarter of all Dutch aircraft parts. The Americans are also an important customer for ASML’s chip machines, Heineken’s beer and Philips’ ventilators.
Another example: in the 2023-2024 financial year, Dutch company Tata Steel exported 798 million euros (out of a total of five billion euros) worth of steel to North America. Local industry like this would be hit hard.
And of course this goes both ways: the Netherlands is the second largest supplier of goods to the US, after Germany.
The European economy as a whole would be in trouble. As ING predicts:
A looming new trade war could push the eurozone economy from sluggish growth into a full-blown recession. The already struggling German economy, which heavily relies on trade with the US, would be particularly hard hit by tariffs on European automotives… Even though tariffs might not impact Europe until late 2025, the renewed uncertainty and trade war fears could drive the eurozone economy into recession at the turn of the year.
Rabobank calculated that this trade war could result in inflation of 3.8 percent and cost every Dutch citizen around 500 euros per year.
The end of the war in Ukraine
Big fan of Putin that he is, Trump has promised to immediately stop all American support for Ukraine. If this happens, the EU will have a tough decision to make. If European countries want to continue supporting Ukraine at the same level without American aid, most countries will have to double their contributions. Which will be hard for any country already—and even harder after a trade war.
The Netherlands has been one of the biggest supporters of Ukraine in the world, and has already pledged four billion euros of military aid until 2026.
NATO will maybe become obsolete?
The principle behind NATO (the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, a military alliance between 32 countries in Europe and North America) is that an attack on one member state is an attack on them all. In theory, if a foreign adversary attacked the Netherlands, NATO members would come to its defense.
This entire operating principle went out the window last February, when Trump said he would encourage Russia to “do whatever the hell they want” to any NATO member country that did not meet defense spending targets.
I wrote in detail about what happened in February here, but the basic idea: each member country is supposed to spend two percent of GDP on defense, but many don’t reach this target—while the US war machine accounts for three to four percent of American GDP annually. Trump pounced on this imbalance, and the idea that Europe isn’t paying its fair share, and his comments were a major wakeup call: Europeans suddenly understood that they would not be able to rely on American military aid.
It’s unclear whether Trump would actually withdraw from NATO, or continue to eat it alive from the inside with incendiary comments. It’s also hard to say what the consequence will be for the alliance as whole, or how a European military alliance will be redrawn in its wake.
However, Mark Rutte, the former Prime Minister of the Netherlands, became the head of NATO last month. He got the nickname “Teflon Mark” because he managed to stay in office for fourteen years despite government scandal after government scandal; nothing seemed to stick to him.
“He is right about this,” Rutte said in Budapest two days after Trump’s victory, referencing Trump’s calls for European countries to pay more.
Another one of Rutte’s nicknames? “The Trump Whisperer.”
“Sometimes you have to dance with whoever is on the dance floor,” as he said in 2019.
Whether or not NATO survives, the consequence will be that European countries will ramp up defense spending at the cost of social services, education, and health care, just like in America, to defend against foreign threats that America stokes in order to justify their spending.
What’s next
Obviously, a global trade war would disrupt the Dutch economy for many years. But the globalization facilitated by unfettered free trade has led to the rise of far-right populism—as globalization leaves some people behind, they naturally turn to leaders who speak their language and promise a return to better days. If a trade war (in some sense) gives this segment of society what they want, it remains to be seen how the politics will shake out on the other side.
And every country should pay their fair share for defense. It wasn’t right for European countries to rely on America for as long as they did. American leaders were bound to get fed up with it, and this shock to the system might actually be a good development for Europe’s independence long-term.
🔥 Hot Linkjes
Society
Dutch speakers are using the formal u less and less. I Am Expat.
In an effort to reduce student stress levels, a secondary school in Utrecht is blocking parents from accessing student grades. Guardian.
American women are looking to move abroad in these uncertain times. One way to make it happen? The Dutch-American Friendship Treaty. USA Today.
Abortions in the Netherlands were up 10% from last year. This might have to do with TikTok pregnancy and birth control disinformation, a disturbing phenomenon physicians rang the alarm about last year. NL Times.
Business
Small farmers in the NL and throughout Europe are struggling to stay in business and turn a profit. Guardian.
Dutch and French investigators raided Netflix’s Amsterdam and Paris headquarters for evidence of money laundering and tax fraud. AP.
The Body Shop went bankrupt in the Netherlands; after successful restructuring Dunkin’ Donuts will remain in the Netherlands despite their bankruptcy last month; high street home goods shop Blokker is on the verge of collapse.
Arts & Books & Design
Alex van Halen, brother of rock start Eddie van Halen, published Brothers, a new memoir about their relationship. They were born in Amsterdam to a Dutch father and Indonesian mother and immigrated to California young. NPR.
Performance artist Alicia Framis will marry her hologram boyfriend at Rotterdam’s Museum Boijmans Van Beuningen this weekend. That’s one way to get off the apps. Artnet.
Sport
Dutch runner Abdi Nageeye won the NY Marathon men’s race. New York Post.
Crime
Two Andy Warhol prints were stolen and more were damaged in a “amateurish” robbery in Amsterdam. Fox News.
Rioters in Amsterdam targeted Israeli football fans. Over sixty people were arrested. BBC
🥳 Leuke Dingetjes
Mr. Beast, the biggest YouTuber in the world, took a hot air balloon ride in the Netherlands.
📺 Kijk/Lees/Luister List
What I enjoyed watching, reading, and listening to this week.
TV / Movies
Autumn is awards season, when film studios release all their best dramas ahead of the Oscars in February. Some of the best I’ve seen:
Anora, about a sex worker who impulsively marries the son of a Russian oligarch, is so fresh and exciting, and it would not be surprising if Mikey Madison wins Best Actress for her performance.
Conclave, a fictional story of the scandalous process of electing a new pope is beautifully shot and a far spicier story than it sounds.
Juror #2, probably ninety four year-old Clint Eastwood’s last film, is an excellent courtroom drama straight outta the 1990’s in the best way. Great time at the movies.
The Apprentice, a film about Donald Trump’s rise to power in New York City in the 1980’s and 1990’s might not sound that appealing, but the way Sebastian Stan slowly morphs into the Trump with worth today is masterful.
Music / Podcasts
The four-episode series “Data Vampires” from the Tech Won’t Save Us Podcast is a sobering look at the environmental and social costs of the massive hyperscale data centers that big tech is building all over the world to power AI.
Articles / Books
“Exit Right” by Gabriel Winant in Dissent Magazine. The smartest, most incisive, and most well-written analysis I’ve read about the election.
*all typos in this post are on purpose