America won't save us anymore
The Netherlands without NATO
Last weekend, Donald Trump said that he would encourage Russia to “do whatever the hell they want” to any NATO member country not meeting defense spending targets—a list of countries that includes the Netherlands.
Trump’s comments instigated a slow-burn wake-up call across Europe over the last week, as leaders have started to realize that it’s most definitely time to stop outsourcing European defense to America. Trump off-handedly ranting that he would encourage Russia to invade the Netherlands (in so many words) for being what he calls “delinquent” on our NATO “bill,” has been enough to destroy the theoretical principle of deterrence underpinning the alliance. He exposed the fragility of the system while Europe is in the most vulnerable position it’s been in since the Cold War, with the Ukrainian war raging on not so far away.
NATO is a military alliance of 31 states who agree to defend each other from outside attacks. They agree to Article 5, which states that “an armed attack against one or more [member state] in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all.” Rather than membership dues, NATO uses defense spending targets—currently two percent of GDP. Apparently this is the agreed-upon amount that states need to spend to keep their armed forces trained, ready to go, and modern.
But many member countries don’t meet this target. Some do: the US spends 3.5 percent of GDP on defense. Poland, which borders Ukraine, now spends 3.9 percent. Finland, Romania, Latvia, and Hungary, also seriously increased spending since the start of the Ukraine war.
The Netherlands consistently comes in at under 2 percent. Trump has long complained about NATO because of this kind of spending imbalance. He called NATO “obsolete” during his 2016 campaign, and he threatened to withdraw from the alliance at the 2018 NATO summit. (Advisors talked him out of it.) He wants to withdraw if he wins in November, a threat Congress took so seriously that they passed a law preventing a president from unilaterally withdrawing without congressional approval.
In the Atlantic last month, Anne Applebaum neatly foreshadowed what Trump said last weekend, and its consequences:
NATO’s most important source of influence is not legal or institutional, but psychological: It creates an expectation of collective defense that exists in the mind of anyone who would threaten a member of the alliance...
Deterrence comes from the Kremlin’s conviction that Americans really believe in collective defense, that the U.S. military really is prepared for collective defense, and that the U.S. president really is committed to act if collective security is challenged. Trump could end that conviction with a single speech, a single comment, even a single Truth Social post, and it won’t matter if Congress, the media, and the Republican Party are still arguing about the legality of withdrawing from NATO. Once the commander in chief says “I will not come to an ally’s aid if attacked,” why would anyone fear NATO, regardless of what obligations still exist on paper?
For some context, American politicians on both sides of the spectrum, both Democrats and Republicans, have complained about NATO—large countries like Germany and France not meeting the two percent target has long been a sore spot—and the Republicans do have a point. The “peace dividend,” how much money the Netherlands saved on defense, comes to 135 billion euros over the last three decades. That’s a lot of money to use to build a robust welfare state. From a Dutch perspective it was such a bad idea to rely on NATO for as long as we could get away with it.
On Thursday, Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren said that if the US withdraws from NATO the Netherlands will more than double its defense spending, to four percent.
Which would be interesting, considering that cabinet formation talks failed two weeks ago over the state of public finances—as I wrote last week, Pieter Omtzigt of the center-right NSC party was convinced that there was no feasible way to pay for the campaign promises, like eliminating the health care deductible and tax cuts, of Geert Wilders’ PVV party and the farmer’s BBB party. They were 17 billion euros short. An amount which is, as it happens, is almost four percent of GDP. So if we want to do it all we would need to come up with an extra 40 billion euros? From where?
The Netherlands spending four percent of GDP on defense might make it a very different kind of place to live.
It looks like outgoing Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte might be nominated as the new head of NATO as soon next month. It makes sense: Rutte is known for being good at handling Trump. Might Rutte be able to convince Trump not to withdraw?
Probably not? Possibly, but it doesn’t really matter at this point. Whether or not the US withdraws, Europe needs to unite and prepare to defend itself without the help of the US—something it has proven to be pretty bad at!
Small, flat, exposed countries like the Netherlands and Belgium are dependent on military alliances. We’re not Switzerland or somewhere with mountains in the way, or the UK bordered by seas. It only took the Nazis five days to invade the Netherlands during WWII. Yet our vulnerability isn’t only topological. Two percent of Germany’s GDP is $85 billion. Two percent of Dutch GDP is $20 billion. We can’t keep up with that kind of spending even if we quadruple ours.
Alliances like NATO in particular might be outdated. But the reality for the Netherlands is that we are dependent on other states for our defense. That these states may now be Germany and France rather than the US might be a mental shift, but as far as the Netherlands is concerned, the paradigm essentially won’t change because it can’t. We can’t afford it.
🔥 Hot Linkjes
Society
When farmer protests spread across Europe in the last couple of weeks, the EU immediately offered concessions, like cutting back on proposed environmental regulations. The bigger picture behind it all are schizophrenic neoliberal EU policies, as
argues in a excellent deep dive in the topic onFormer Dutch prime minister Dries van Agt and his wife died while holding hands, via duo euthanasia. Twenty-nine couples died by this practice in the Netherlands 2022. I’ve written about euthanasia in detail here. (Washington Post)
How did a concept like niksen (doing nothing) come from a country of Calvinists, the Protestant work ethic, and huge rates of burnout? The same way Caroline van der Plas became leader of the BBB: marketing. (Viv Groskop / Guardian)
International
Speaking of military alliances: the Netherlands will send six more F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine and has joined a coalition with the UK to help build out Ukraine’s drone fleet.
American trade restrictions designed to slow China’s chip-making capabilities aren’t working. As I wrote recently, Dutch tech firm ASML restricted exports to China under US pressure… and like, for what? (Quianer Liu / Financial Times)
In a different type of trade war: an appeals court ruled that the Dutch government must stop exporting parts for F-35 fighter jets to Israel. The NL must “prohibit the export of military goods if there is a clear risk of serious violations of the humanitarian law of war.” (Cassandra Vinograd / New York Times)
Politics
As I wrote last week, cabinet formation talks are chaos. This article gives a good rundown of the various options for what’s next. New elections aren’t likely soon: there’s no set time limit for how long negotiations can last. (Bart Meijer / Reuters)
For a deep dive in to the dazzling complexities of the Dutch cabinet formation system, check out
Arts
A statue of Belgian officer beheaded during a 1930s uprising in the Congo will be displayed at the Dutch pavilion of the Venice Biennale. (Philip Oltermann / Guardian)
Crime
Former Ajax star Quincy Promes has been sentenced to six years in prison for smuggling one hundred kilos of cocaine in 2020. Not surprising that high-profile Dutch people are getting caught up in the drug trade. (Washington Post)
🥳 Leuke Dingetjes
Chocoladevlokken etc.
Finally, beschuit gets the respect it deserves on the international stage.
A new single from Meis
Meis had an interesting profile recently in the Volkskrant—she had her stomach removed preventatively against hereditary cancer, and is pictured with her scar on the album cover. The songs in her debut album chronicle this experience.
*all typos in this post are on purpose